After the rate-cut rally triggered by cooling inflation data in previous trading days, the US stock market on August 12, 2026, faced a new macro test. As a prelude to this week's heavyweight economic data, the July Producer Price Index (PPI) released during the session became the center of attention. Hangucailan noted that the market appeared relatively cautious before the data release, with the three major indices opening mixed. However, as the PPI data landed, intraday trading sentiment quickly warmed up. Overall, today's US stock market showed a pattern of "tech stocks stabilizing, cyclical stocks exerting strength." The Nasdaq Index rose with volatility under the continuous push of the AI wave, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index sought new balance points amid sector rotation.
PPI Data Cools Beyond Expectations, Soft Landing Expectations Rise Again
The core catalyst during today's session was undoubtedly the July PPI data released by the US Department of Labor. The data showed that the month-on-month increase of July PPI was far below market expectations, and the year-on-year growth hit a new low in the past six months. The cooling of the service cost index was the key factor dragging down the overall PPI, indicating that the "wage-price spiral" risk previously feared by the market is gradually being lifted. Hangucailan's analysis team believes that following the comprehensive cooling of CPI data last week, the weakening of PPI data further confirms that US inflation pressure is smoothly transmitting from the upstream production side to the downstream consumption side.
This data directly strengthened the market's confidence in the Fed achieving a "soft landing." A soft landing means the Fed successfully reduces inflation to the 2% target range through tightening monetary policy while avoiding a deep economic recession. After the PPI data release, pricing in the federal funds rate futures market showed that traders' expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting rose above 90%, with some aggressive institutions even starting to reprice the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut. This shift in macro expectations provided the most solid liquidity logic support for today's intraday rebound in US stocks.
Nasdaq Real-Time Quotes: AI Computing Power Mainline Remains Firm, Tech Giants' Valuations Reshaped
Against the backdrop of improving macro liquidity expectations, the Nasdaq Index, centered on tech stocks, became the biggest winner of today's session. At the opening, although the Nasdaq dipped slightly due to some profit-taking, it quickly recovered lost ground and turned higher under the push of buying. As of the intraday trading session, the Nasdaq Index's gain firmly ranked first among the three major indices.
Semiconductor and Data Center Sectors Lead Gains
Looking at the segment performance, AI computing power concept stocks remained the main force supporting the Nasdaq's strength. Despite the ongoing debate in the market about "whether the AI bubble is bursting," capital voted with its feet and gave the answer. Large semiconductor companies generally rose during today's session. Hangucailan believes that with the accelerated implementation of enterprise-level AI applications in the second half of 2026, market demand for computing power has not peaked; instead, it shows a structural outbreak spreading from the training side to the inference side. This gives extremely high earnings visibility to semiconductor equipment manufacturers and data center infrastructure suppliers, making them a dual choice for capital to avoid risk and seek appreciation.
Tech Giants Face Valuation Reassessment
Notably, several tech giants with market caps exceeding one trillion dollars showed slight divergence in their performance during today's session. Some giants affected by concerns about slowing cloud computing growth saw their stock prices under pressure, while those making breakthroughs in AI edge-side hardware and vertical large language models hit intraday highs. This divergence indicates that market speculation on tech stocks is moving from the early "broad concept rally" stage to the "earnings realization and valuation reassessment" stage. Investors are no longer simply paying for AI stories, but are more closely examining the ability to convert them into actual free cash flow.
Dow Jones Index Live: Traditional Manufacturing Recovers, Defensive Sectors Quietly Rotate
Unlike the Nasdaq's sharp prominence, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's performance during today's session was relatively mild, but undercurrents surged beneath the surface. The Dow maintained narrow range fluctuations in early trading, then gradually moved upward driven by cyclical component stocks.
Capital Outflow from Defensive Sectors
Hangucailan observed that the S&P 500 sector rotation effect was significant during today's session. With the consolidation of rate-cut expectations, traditional defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples showed clear signs of capital outflow. Over the past few months, due to heightened market concerns about economic recession, a large amount of safe-haven funds poured into these sectors, driving up valuations. Now, as a soft landing becomes the baseline scenario, the defensive attributes of these sectors are no longer favored, and capital is beginning to shift toward high-beta cyclical sectors.
Financial and Industrial Sectors Get a Breather
Benefiting from the stabilization and decline of long-term US Treasury yields, the highly interest-rate-sensitive real estate and financial sectors performed brightly during today's session. Regional bank stocks, in particular, saw a long-absent heavy-volume rise after shaking off the suppression of high capital costs. In addition, industrial manufacturing component stocks also gained favor due to expectations of a looser credit environment. This rotation from defensive to cyclical is an important sign of market risk appetite repair, and it also means that bullish forces are trying to broaden the breadth of the rally, no longer relying solely on tech stocks.
S&P 500 Analysis: Technicals Face Key Resistance, Bull-Bear Game Intensifies
From a technical perspective of the S&P 500 Index, the index is currently in a dense resistance zone near previous historical highs. During today's session, when the S&P 500 touched this resistance level, it showed a clear phenomenon of shrinking volume and stalling, indicating that the selling pressure from trapped buyers above should not be underestimated.
- Moving Average System: The S&P 500 is currently standing firmly above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the medium-to-long-term upward trend remains intact. However, top divergence signals have appeared at the short-term 15-minute and 60-minute levels, suggesting a possible technical pullback during the session.
- Volume and Energy: Although the index closed higher today, the overall trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day. The price-volume divergence means that the momentum for this upward breakthrough may be slightly insufficient. Without subsequent positive catalysts, the index may build a volatile platform at high levels.
- Sector Breadth: The number of rising and falling sectors was basically flat today, and the market's wealth effect did not fully spread with the index's rise, which also raises questions about short-term market stability.
Hangucailan reminds investors that blindly chasing highs in front of key resistance levels carries certain risks. Using possible intraday pullback opportunities to optimize position structures and focusing on pro-cyclical sectors with high earnings certainty that are not yet fully priced by the market is a more prudent strategy.
Intraday US Stock Investment Strategy: Grasp Rate-Cut Dividends, Beware of Overdrawn Expectations
Synthesizing various data and trends from today's session, Hangucailan has outlined the following trading ideas for investors:
First, for tech stocks, the principle of "weeding out the weak and keeping the strong" should be adhered to. Although the AI industry trend is far from over, divergence at the individual stock level will become increasingly severe. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with irreplaceable technical barriers in the industry chain and reasonable valuations, and to avoid small-cap tech stocks that are purely riding the concept without substantial profit support.
Second, pay attention to bottom-reversal opportunities in pro-cyclical sectors. With the dual cooling of PPI and CPI, the Fed's rate-cut path is basically clear, which will greatly improve the earnings expectations of interest-rate-sensitive industries such as manufacturing and real estate. One can moderately use ETFs or select leading stocks to front-run this round of sector rotation dividends.
Finally, maintain reasonable position management. Although market soft-landing expectations are warming up, there are still heavyweight indicators such as retail sales data to be released later this week. If the data is unexpectedly strong, it may trigger a market reassessment of the pace of rate cuts. Therefore, setting stop-loss levels during intraday trading and guarding against volatility risks brought by sudden data are required courses for long-term survival in the US stock market.
Overall, the intraday trading of US stocks on August 12, 2026, demonstrated the market's self-adjustment and evolution after macro data became clearer. The resilience of tech stocks intertwined with the recovery of cyclical stocks, forming a vivid picture of the bull-bear game. Investors need to closely follow the pulse of data and strike precisely amid sector rotation to capture excess returns in the magnificent US stock market.
