US Stock Market Live Broadcast on October 4, 2026: Tech Stocks Lead Rally as Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen, Market Mood Cautiously Optimistic
During the evening of October 4, 2026 Beijing time, US stock market's three major indices opened higher collectively, then maintained an upward trend with fluctuations. The further strengthening of market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, combined with positive earnings reports from tech giants, jointly drove the US stock market higher. However, investor concerns about geopolitical risks and economic data limited market gains, showing an overall cautiously optimistic sentiment.
Major Index Performance: Tech Stocks Lead, Dow Relatively Weak
As of the close of trading on October 4 Eastern Time, the Nasdaq index rose 1.82%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.25%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average only gained slightly by 0.38%. Market differentiation was evident, with tech stocks becoming the main driving force, while traditional industrial and financial stocks performed relatively weakly.
The strong performance of the Nasdaq index was mainly due to the stock price increases of tech giants such as Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL). Among them, Apple's stock price rose 2.15%, Microsoft rose 2.38%, and Google rose 1.96%. The earnings reports of these companies showed that cloud computing and artificial intelligence businesses continued to maintain strong growth, providing support for stock prices.
Sector Rotation: Tech and Energy Lead, Financial Sector Under Pressure
In terms of sector performance, technology, discretionary consumer, and energy sectors led the market, while financial, industrial, and utility sectors performed relatively weaker.
- Technology Sector: Driven by AI concept stocks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.15%, NVIDIA (NVDA) stock rose 3.42%, and AMD rose 2.87%. The continuous optimistic market expectations for artificial intelligence and chip demand were the main driving forces for the sector's rise.
- Energy Sector: Affected by the rise in international oil prices, the energy sector as a whole rose 1.8%. ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) rose 1.5% and 1.7% respectively.
- Financial Sector: Despite market expectations of rate cuts, bank stocks generally faced pressure. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell 0.8%, Bank of America (BAC) fell 0.6%, mainly as the market worried that rate cuts would compress bank net interest margins.
- Healthcare Sector: Performed steadily, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pfizer (PFE) rising slightly by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming quarterly earnings reports of pharmaceutical companies.
Market Drivers: Rate Cut Expectations and Tech Giant Earnings
The main factors driving the rise in the US stock market today include:
- Strengthening Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The latest economic data shows that US inflation in September fell to 3.2%, lower than market expectations, further strengthening market expectations for a Fed rate cut in November. The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the market currently estimates the probability of a rate cut in November to be over 80%.
- Strong Tech Giant Earnings Performance: The earnings reports released by tech giants such as Apple and Microsoft showed that their cloud computing and AI businesses continued to maintain strong growth, boosting market confidence in the tech sector.
- Rise in International Oil Prices: Affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international crude oil prices rose, driving the energy sector higher.
- Expectations for China's Stimulus Policies: Market expectations that China may introduce larger-scale stimulus policies boosted investor sentiment, forming a positive impact on Chinese concept stocks.
Key Stock Movements: NVIDIA Leads AI Concept Stocks, Tesla Volatility Intensifies
In terms of individual stocks, NVIDIA (NVDA) performed outstandingly today, with its stock price rising 3.42% and market capitalization exceeding $1.3 trillion. The company's latest earnings report showed that data center business revenue increased by 45% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations. Analysts believe that as AI applications become more popular, NVIDIA is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming quarters.
Tesla (TSLA) stock price fluctuated significantly, falling 2.1% at one point during the session but rebounding to a slight increase of 0.5% before the close. Market expectations for Tesla's third-quarter delivery data were divided, leading to unstable stock price movements. Some analysts pointed out that despite increasing competition from traditional automakers, Tesla still has obvious advantages in autonomous driving and energy storage fields.
On the other hand, Amazon (AMZN) stock rose 1.8% as the company announced expanding its cloud computing services and plans to increase investment in the artificial intelligence field. The market believes that this move will help Amazon maintain its leading position in AI competition.
Market Sentiment Analysis: Cautious Optimism and Structural Opportunities Coexist
According to the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), market sentiment currently shows a cautiously optimistic attitude. Bullish sentiment accounts for 42%, bearish sentiment for 31%, and neutral sentiment for 27%. This indicates that although investors are optimistic about market prospects, they remain vigilant.
In terms of capital flows, the technology sector attracted large capital inflows today, while the financial sector experienced net capital outflows. This reflects that investors in the current environment are more inclined to allocate to growth assets rather than value assets.
Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 index currently finds support around the 4200 level, with the next important resistance level at 4400. The key support level for the Nasdaq index is around 13500, with resistance around 13800. Market analysts believe that if the S&P 500 index can break through 4400, it may open up further upside potential.
Notably, trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, which may indicate that investors are cautious at the current position, waiting for more economic data and policy signals.
Future Outlook: Focus on Inflation Data and Fed Policy Signals
Looking ahead to the coming week, the market will pay close attention to the following key data and events:
- US September non-farm employment data: Expected to add 150,000 jobs, with unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%.
- Fed Chair's speech: The market will look for clues about the direction of monetary policy.
- Several tech giant earnings reports: Including companies like Alphabet and Meta will release quarterly results.
- China's macroeconomic data: Including GDP, PMI and other data will affect market sentiment.
Analysts generally believe that against the backdrop of strengthening rate cut expectations, tech stocks and growth stocks are expected to continue to lead the market. However, investors also need to pay attention to fluctuations in inflation data and the impact of geopolitical risks on the market, maintaining portfolio diversification.
Investment Strategy Recommendations: Focus on Tech and AI Tracks, Pay Attention to Defensive Allocation
Based on the current market environment, the Hanggu Financial Research team proposes the following investment strategy recommendations:
- Tech and AI Allocation: Continue to focus on leading companies in cloud computing, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence fields, such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. These companies have obvious advantages in technological innovation and market share.
- Energy Sector Opportunities: Geopolitical tensions may continue to support oil prices, and the energy sector, especially upstream exploration and producers, is worth attention.
- Defensive Allocation: Appropriately increase allocations to defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples to hedge against market volatility risks.
- Chinese Concept Stocks Focus: Pay attention to high-quality Chinese concept stocks that benefit from China's stimulus policies, especially leading companies in new energy, technology, and consumption sectors.
Overall, the US stock market on October 4, 2026 showed a cautiously optimistic sentiment, with tech stocks performing prominently against the backdrop of strengthening rate cut expectations. While investors seize structural opportunities, they also need to pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy changes, maintaining a balanced and diversified investment portfolio.
