At 12:00 PM ET on August 2, the three major US stock indexes are consolidating near highs after a brief early-session rally. As the last heavyweight trading day of this week's and this super earnings season, Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) results released after yesterday's close are the core drivers today. At press time, the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.15% near 18,750; the S&P 500 is nearly flat at 5,520; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.2%, showing relative resilience.
Tech Giants' Earnings Wrap: Apple and Amazon Diverge
After yesterday's close, the two trillion-dollar market cap giants reported quarterly results. Apple (AAPL) earnings showed record-high services revenue, effectively offsetting weak hardware lines, with total revenue beating Wall Street estimates. However, due to a slightly larger-than-expected revenue decline in Greater China and relatively conservative forward guidance, Apple shares opened higher but faded, now up just 0.3%.
In contrast, Amazon (AMZN) surprised the market. AWS cloud revenue growth re-accelerated, and advertising performance was strong, demonstrating significant earnings resilience. Amazon shares surged over 5% intraday, boosting consumer and retail sector sentiment. Technically, Amazon gapped up today, breaking out of its recent consolidation range on heavy volume, suggesting institutional re-accumulation.
Sector Rotation Accelerates: From Semiconductors to Defensives and Energy
After a strong tech rally in July, the market's internal structure is showing subtle shifts. We note that as tech earnings conclude, the previously overextended semiconductor sector is seeing clear profit-taking. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) shares are both down over 1%. This fits the typical "sell the news" pattern, as some short-term capital locks in profits before earnings season ends.
Fund flows are rotating from high-beta tech into defensive and cyclical sectors. Among S&P 500 sectors today, energy and healthcare lead. With renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices edged higher, lifting Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Consumer staples also attracted safe-haven flows.
Macro View: Market Holds Breath for Next Week's Nonfarm Payrolls
While earnings dominate this week, the macro shadow still looms. Today's ISM Manufacturing PMI showed US factory activity still contracting, but the prices paid index ticked up, slightly fueling weak stagflation fears.
However, the market's real focus has already shifted to next Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report. For Hanggu Financial Research readers, we must recognize that the market has entered a "data-driven" mode. If next week's payrolls are too weak, it would strengthen rate-cut expectations but could also trigger real recession fears, ending tech's strength; conversely, if data is too hot, rate-cut expectations will be pushed back, pressuring high-valuation US stocks. Thus, today's narrow range largely reflects the tug-of-war between bulls and bears ahead of key data.
Technical Watch: Nasdaq Faces Key Resistance
From a technical perspective on the Nasdaq Composite's real-time move, the daily chart shows the index near the upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI near 70 in overbought territory, suggesting a near-term technical pullback is needed. The Nasdaq has repeatedly failed to breach the 17,000 level today, indicating strong overhead resistance. Support lies near 16,800, the 5-day moving average. As long as this support holds, the tech-driven rebound trend remains intact.
For investors, the current strategy should shift from aggressive chasing to steady position monitoring. Amid accelerating sector rotation, appropriately allocating to equal-weight S&P 500 index funds with relatively reasonable valuations, or focusing on defensive sectors like healthcare, may be a better way to navigate next week's macro uncertainty.
